Model risk on credit risk

This paper develops the Jungle model in a credit portfolio framework. The Jungle model is able to model credit contagion, produce doubly-peaked probability distributions for the total default loss and endogenously generate quasi phase transitions, potentially leading to systemic credit events which happen unexpectedly and without an underlying single cause. We show the Jungle model provides the optimal probability distribution for credit losses, under some reasonable empirical constraints. The Dandelion model, a particular case of the Jungle model, is presented, motivated and exactly solved. The Dandelion model provides an explicit example of doubly-peaked probability distribution for the credit losses. The Diamond model, another instance of the Jungle model, experiences the so called quasi phase transitions; in particular, both the U.S. subprime and the European sovereign crises are shown to be potential examples of quasi phase transitions. We suggest how the Jungle model is able to explain a series of empirical stylized facts in credit portfolios, hard to reconcile by some standard credit portfolio models. We look at model risk in a credit risk framework under the Jungle model, especially in relation to systemic risks posed by doubly-peaked distributions and quasi phase transitions

Pulmonary metastasectomy in colorectal cancer: a prospective study of demography and clinical characteristics of 543 patients in the Spanish colorectal metastasectomy registry (GECMP-CCR)

ObjectivesTo capture an accurate contemporary description of the practice of pulmonary metastasectomy for colorectal carcinoma in one national healthcare system.DesignA national registry set up in Spain by Grupo Español de Cirugía Metástasis Pulmonares de Carcinoma Colo-Rectal (GECMP-CCR).Setting32 Spanish thoracic units.ParticipantsAll patients with one or more histologically proven lung metastasis removed by surgery between March 2008 and February 2010.InterventionsPulmonary metastasectomy for one or more pulmonary nodules proven to be metastatic colorectal carcinoma.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe age and sex of the patients having this surgery were recorded with the number of metastases removed, the interval between the primary colorectal cancer operation and the pulmonary metastasectomy, and the carcinoembryonic antigen level. Also recorded were the practices with respect to mediastinal lymphadenopathy and coexisting liver metastases.ResultsData were available on 543 patients from 32 units (6–43/unit). They were aged 32–88 (mean 65) years, and 65% were men. In 55% of patients, there was a solitary metastasis. The median interval between the primary cancer resection and metastasectomy was 28 months and the serum carcinoembryonic antigen was low/normal in the majority. Liver metastatic disease was present in 29% of patients at some point prior to pulmonary metastasectomy. Mediastinal lymphadenectomy varied from 9% to 100% of patients.ConclusionsThe data represent a prospective comprehensive national data collection on pulmonary metastasectomy. The practice is more conservative than the impression gained when members of the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons were surveyed in 2006/2007 but is more inclusive than would be recommended on the basis of recent outcome analyses. Further analyses on the morbidity associated with this surgery and the correlation between imaging studies and pathological findings are being published separately by GECMP-CCR

Social pharmacology: expanding horizons

In the current modern and global society, social changes are in constant evolution due to scientific progress (technology, culture, customs, and hygiene) and produce the freedom in individuals to take decisions by themselves or with their doctors toward drug consumption. In the arena of marketed drug products which includes society, individual, administration, and pharmaceutical industry, the young discipline emerged is social pharmacology or sociopharmacology. This science arises from clinical pharmacology, and deals with different parameters, which are important in creating knowledge on marketed drugs. However, the scope of “social pharmacology” is not covered by the so‑called “Phase IV” alone, but it is the science that handles the postmarketing knowledge of drugs. The social pharmacology studies the “life cycle” of any marketed pharmaceutical product in the social terrain, and evaluates the effects of the real environment under circumstances totally different in the drug development process. Therefore, there are far‑reaching horizons, plural, and shared predictions among health professionals and other, for beneficial use of a drug, toward maximizing the benefits of therapy, while minimizing negative social consequences

Social pharmacology: expanding horizons

In the current modern and global society, social changes are in constant evolution due to scientific progress (technology, culture, customs, and hygiene) and produce the freedom in individuals to take decisions by themselves or with their doctors toward drug consumption. In the arena of marketed drug products which includes society, individual, administration, and pharmaceutical industry, the young discipline emerged is social pharmacology or sociopharmacology. This science arises from clinical pharmacology, and deals with different parameters, which are important in creating knowledge on marketed drugs. However, the scope of “social pharmacology” is not covered by the so‑called “Phase IV” alone, but it is the science that handles the postmarketing knowledge of drugs. The social pharmacology studies the “life cycle” of any marketed pharmaceutical product in the social terrain, and evaluates the effects of the real environment under circumstances totally different in the drug development process. Therefore, there are far‑reaching horizons, plural, and shared predictions among health professionals and other, for beneficial use of a drug, toward maximizing the benefits of therapy, while minimizing negative social consequences

Pla de gestió de residus ramaders de la Noguera

Estudi base per al disseny del pla de gestió de dejeccions ramaderes a la comarca de la Noguera. Finançat pel Patronat de Promoció Econòmica de la Diputació de Lleida, Fons Social Europeu i Departaments de Medi Ambient i d'Agricultura, Ramaderia i Pesca de la Generalitat de Catalunya.La intensificació de la ramaderia dictada per l'europeïtzació i la globalització, la creixent consciència social de la necessitat d'un maneig integral de qualsevol explotació que inclogui els seus residus, la necessitat de regular el sistema productiu per a garantir la seva sostenibilitat, i la legislació fan necessària l'elaboració i aplicació dels plans de gestió dels residus ramaders.Preprin

Hin Tata

Confédération berbère, appartenant au groupe Maṣmūda, ainsi que le mentionne le Kitāb al-ansāb d’al-Magīlī (470/1077-1078) (cf. Ibn ‘Abd al-Ḥalīm, Kitāb al-ansāb, 221). L’ancêtre de cette confédération, dont le nom est transcrit en caractères arabes “Hintāt”, était appelé “Yintī” dans la “langue des Maṣāmida”. Neuf clans (butūn) composaient la confédération des Hintāta, parmi lesquels ceux de Gaygāya et de Wuzkīta. Le lieu d’origine des Hintāta doit précisément correspondre au territoire de c..